THE MELBOURNE CUP – A QUICK CHECK-LIST
By Graham Potter | Monday, November 2, 2026
Any race has a large number of variables that can affect the outcome. The beauty of the game is that individuals can view the same set of statistics and come up with a different conclusion..
Here is just some, not all, of the factors that might be considered before making a selection for The Melbourne Cup.
It’s best not to overcomplicate it. What you are looking for, ideally, in the first instance, is a horse that can stay well and who will carry a light weight. In the right hands that would be a formidable combination, so that's as good a place to start as any.
Horses who have won over the 3200m trip (or further) … and of those who is best in at the weights?
Trustyourinstinct, Knight’s Choice (a Melbourne Cup winner), Vauban, Goodie Two Shoes (who finished second in the race last year), Onesmoothoperator, Soul Of Spain and Kizlyar have all won over the Melbourne Cup distance or longer. The Joseph O’Brien trained Kizlyar, who is unwanted in the betting at $41, has won up to 4013m and he is the lightest weighted runner of this group coming in with 53.5kg.
Horses who have won at Group 1 level in the last two years
Knight’s Choice (in the 2024 Melbourne Cup) and Strictly Business (in the VRC Oaks).
Horses who have won at the track
Knight’s Choice, Juja Kimbo, Future History, Strictly Business, Mr Monaco, Zakouma and Shockletz.
Horses who have their regular jockey on board (must have ridden the horse in at least three of its last four starts or in its last two starts)
Enfjaar (Ray Dawson), Juja Kimbo (Sam Clipperton), So You Are (Rachel King), Mister Monaco (Jabez Johnston), Zakuma (Willie Pike), Shockletz (Harry Coffey)
Horses who have had a warm up run, or runs, over the last five weeks leading into the Cup (back to September 29
Knight’s Choice, Middle Earth, Vauban, Enfjaar, Royal Supremacy, Wine Dark Sea, Asterix, Juja Kimbo, Onesmoothoperator, Soul Of Spain, Zahrann, So You Are, Future History, Kizlyar, Point Of Law, Strictly Business, Zakuma and Shockletz.
Horses who will be racing first-up
Hopewell Rock
Horses that will be seeing Flemington for the first time.
Sons And lovers, Trustyourinstinct, Enfjaar, Wine Dark Sea, Hopewell Rock, Soul Of Spain, James J Braddock, Point Of Law,
Horses that will be racing in Australia for the first time.
Sons And lovers, Trustyourinstinct, Hopewell Rock and James J Braddock.
Last start winners.
Juja Kimbo, So You Are, Point Of Law.
A look at the age groups
Nine-year-olds
Vauban, Onesmoothoperator, Fututre History.
Eight-year-Olds:
Asterix, Goodie Two Shoes.
Seven-year-olds:
Tryustyourinstinct, Knight’s Choice, Middle Earth, Enfjaar.
Six-year-olds:
Sons And Lovers, Royal Supremacy, Juja Kimbo, Soul Of Spain, Mr Monaco, Zakouma.
Five-year-olds:
White Dark Sea, Hopewell Rock, Zahrann, So You Are, Kizlyar, Shockletz.
Four-year-olds:
James J Braddock, Point Of Law, Strictly Business.
*A five-year-old won the Cup in 2024 and 2025. A seven-year-old won the race in 2023 and six-year-olds were triumphant on both 2021 and 2022.
Lastly, a look at the betting
Always worth a glance to familiarise yourself with what the market is doing. If the betting backs up your choice all is well and good. If it doesn't, do not let it put you off.
There is nothing quite as upsetting as losing your money because you followed someone else's lead, when you had it right in the first place.
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