WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON, JULY 2, 2023
By Darren Winningham | Saturday, July 1, 2023
This Sunday we head to GRAFTON for the first day of the 2023 GRAFTON CARNIVAL.
It is the traditional JOHN CARLTON CUP Day.
This weekend the track is rated ‘Soft’ and the rail is out 4.5 metres for the entire circuit.
It will be an awesome 2 weeks of racing – I would suggest you head to GRAFTON for some good old fashion country racing! The Club always puts on an amazing program and there are plenty of off-track activities to keep you busy.
NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day, please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day.
Race 1
This will be a tough assignment with the two-year-old runners facing the starter. Some of these are having their first run.
Volcanic Love (5) may be an explosive way to start the program! Trained locally by Scott Henley the gelding has won two trials in emphatic fashion. Anthony Allen will ride him – drawn perfectly in barrier 5.
Brett Cavanough trains Erelle (9). Has stable apprentice Braith Nock, who claims 2 kilograms, in the saddle and has drawn perfectly in barrier 1. This filly won a recent trial at Scone and that effort would suggest she is very forward and could upset these fancied runners on debut.
Dusan (1) is trained on the track by Dwayne Schmidt – has won a recent barrier trial on the Gold Coast – Michael Cahill will ride.
Selections:
5 – Volcanic Love
9 – Erelle
1 – Dusan
6 – Boambee Beach
Rough chance – (13) Invincible Alf
Race 2
This is a race over 1420 metres.
Deep Opinions (2) is trained by Damien Lane and will be ridden by Darryl McLellan. It is not often Lane brings a runner to Grafton and doesn’t go home with the trophy and cash on offer. Won two starts ago at Newcastle and then went to Rosehill in a Midway race and got too far back on a day where leaders seemed to be getting all the favours. Look for a better effort here.
Proud With Pride (8) is another Brett Cavanough runner. Last start raced over the mile – I think the distance was too long. Back to the 1420 metres here I expect her to race handy and be right in the finish. Ashley Morgan will ride – he will make sure she keeps her mind on the job late to get the best out of her.
Bonjour Rupert (4) is the stable mate. Anthony Allen will ride. He is third up here and got too far back last time out at Coffs Harbour.
Olakau’ata (1) is second up here for Brett Dodson and Braith Nock riding. Has a huge weight to carry, however, has won second up and over this distance – keep safe.
Selections:
2 – Deep Opinions
8 – Proud With Pride
1 – Olakau’ata
3 – Smart City
Rough chance – (4) Bonjour Rupert
Race 3
A maiden over 1720 metres.
Like the chance of the locally trainer Enterprise Fuse (10). Last time out raced at this track and distance – but on a heavy track. I think that she despises wet tracks and that the firmer surface will suit her this weekend – Luke Rolls aboard – could be a winner at odds around $7.
Merapi (12) will be ridden by Ben Looker. Is trained by Trent Potts and has stepped up to 1500 metres her last two starts. She looks like she will be able to settle and work home late.
Cenotes (2) is the early favourite. Trained by Colt Prosser and Peter Graham will ride. A three-year-old who has had 7 career starts for 3 seconds and 3 thirds – solid form – has been racing consistently – could be hard to hold out.
Spills (8) has his third career start here for Paddy Cunningham. This trainer always seems to pull one out of his hat each year at the Carnival – this may just be the one. Around $71 in the markets – Matthew Palmer will ride him. Despite barrier 17 – I think he could run a race at huge odds.
Filthy Rich (3) is trained by Dwayne Schmidt – ran a great second here at this distance on a heavy track – maybe that was the telling factor – but the run was good.
Selections:
10 – Enterprise Fuse
12 – Merapi
2– Cenotes
8 – Spills
Rough chance – (3) Filthy Rich
Race 4
Tough way to end the early Quaddie and start the Quaddie here. These races are not getting any easier.
Roman Rebel (5) is trained by Samantha McGuren and is resuming here after a freshen up. Cejay Graham will ride – the girls are combining to get the job done! He has drawn well in barrier 2 and should race a few pairs back.
Sarsen (3) is trained by the all-conquering Adam Campton stables on the Gold Coast, and he has been targeting races for his stable representatives in recent months. This gelding has had two barrier trials to get ready for this race. Jaden Lloyd will ride – no pressure with the old man Jeff Lloyd having a part share in this runner. I would suggest if he doesn’t win it may be a long and cold walk along the Pacific Highway back to QLD. Has drawn well in barrier 3 – he seems to race better ridden quietly – let settle and then a final sprint – just with the rail out so far that may be a problem.
Anatini (4) is trained by Lennie Wheeler – Michael Cahill will ride. Resumes here after a spell. A solid recent barrier trial suggests that he is ready to run a bold race.
You all know I love the colour BLUE so I must keep Blue Acres (7) and Blue Canasta (15) in my selections. Blue Acres is trained here by Dwayne Schmidt – won on debut at $21 at Ballina when he led all the way and ran the opposition into the ground.
Blue Canasta (15) should make the field – trained by Stirling Osland and Ashley Morgan will ride him again after a winning ride in a maiden field at Armidale over 1400 metres.
Negation (8) is trained by Kurt Goldman – second up here and apprentice Zac Wadick will claim 2 kilograms. She missed the start first up at Ballina and then made steady ground late to run a gallant third – not without an each-way chance.
Hold the phone – I see that veteran trainer (this will get me in trouble) Sue Grills has snuck one into the field here – Oodles (17) – probably ironically named – she has plenty! The gelding was first up after a 21-week spell at Quirindi over 1200 metres. Got to the line strong, but seemed to run out of fitness late – will strip fitter here.
Selections:
5 – Roman Rebel
3 – Sarsen
4 – Anatini
8 – Negation
Rough chances – (7) Blue Acres & (15) Blue Canasta & (17) Oodles
Race 5
First leg of the treble. Class 3 over 1115 metres.
She’s Contrary (11) is trained by Brett Cavanough. Was second up at Lismore when was run down in the shadow of the post. The mare was ridden by a 4-kilogram apprentice – there was nothing wrong with the ride – but I think he may get to the line under the hard riding of senior rider Ashley Morgan. Third up, where he has won previously - look for a solid and bold effort.
Bow (1) is the top weight. Trained by Donna Grisedale, he has won his past two starts. Has a massive weight of 60.5 kilograms to carry – however, apprentice Braith Nock will claim 2 kilograms. He has drawn poorly in barrier 19 – but I think that he can go back and be ridden for luck.
October Revolution (4) has drawn well in barrier 9 – a four week freshen up since his last start at Taree. This runner could race well fresh – Luke Rolls aboard.
Small Town (8) is another Sue Grills runner. This gelding won here back in April. Then went back in distance at Newcastle and didn’t fire a shot. An eight week freshen up means he will be right in this race. Casey Waddell will ride and will claim 1.5 kilograms.
I Know The Trainer (10) resumes after a 19 week freshen up after posting a win last time out at Coffs Harbour. She has a very solid record first up and fresh – do not overlook this one – Raymond Spokes will ride.
Selections:
11 – She’s Contrary
1 – Bow
4 – October Revolution
8 – Small Town
Rough chance – (10) I Know The Trainer
Race 6 GRAFTON CUP PRELUDE
This is the Prelude to the Grafton Cup for 2023. This can sometimes give a good sight for the main event, but with the interstate trainers and horses coming out of the QLD winter carnival stopping in – the field will look vastly different come Cup Day.
Michael Morrison on the Gold Coast brings Olympic Class (3) to Grafton looking to post a win. He did win last time out at Lismore over 2110 metres. Anthony Allen rode him to that victory and retains the ride here.
Pepper’s Ghost (1) won two starts ago at Murwillumbah and then was ordinary at Eagle Farm. On his previous winning effort – forgetting the run at Eagle Far, he would not have been the first runner to not like that surface – he is a genuine contender, and he can stay – Ashley Morgan will ride.
King Kakau (4) is trained by Wayne Wilkes and Tegan Harrison will ride. Did win two starts ago at Tamworth over 2100 metres. Then dropped back in distance to 1900 metres at Gosford and appeared to not enjoy that tight turning circuit. Back to a big track – a long straight look for an improvement.
Byakko (6) has had a 13 week freshen up since posting a win here over 2230 metres. Trained by Donna Grisedale and hubby Jon will ride.
Pratten Park (8) could be one down in the weights that could upset the more favoured runners. Is trained by Stephen Lee with Bubba Tilley making the trip from Brisbane to ride her. She won here in April over 2200 metres. Since then, her run at Lismore was full of merit. Settled last – got no luck in the straight – went to the line untested – probably with any luck may have won the race. That run would suggest that he may be hard to hold out here.
Selections:
3 – Olympic Class
1 – Pepper’s Ghost
4 – King Kikau
8 – Pratten Park
Rough chance – (6) Byakko
Race 7 2023 JOHN CARLTON CUP
The last race and the feature race of Day 1.
I like the chances of Proverbial (12) trained by Lou Mary and I see Andrew Mallyon has set the GPS to drive to Grafton to hopefully win one of the feature races of the Carnival. She won a 1100 Highway last time out at Rosehill. She seems to have stronger form at 1100 metres – but she gets in nicely at the weights.
Holy Tycoon (10) resumed for Todd Howlett at Randwick and seemed to be well off the pace. She has a solid second up record and will appreciate the step up in distance – Jaden Lloyd will ride. I am sure there will be some smack spoken if Mallyon can beat Lloyd in this race.
Aheadofhistime (8) is a war horse this time of the year. He has a superb first up record and after a 20-week spell won a barrier trial on his home track at Coffs Harbour in a very impressive fashion. Trevor Hardy always has this runner ready to run well. Ben Looker will ride him here for the first time – he has drawn barrier 17 – but, in saying that, they always seem to truck along hard and fast in this race each year – probably means the field will string out and this runner enjoys a fast race to get home late.
Rising (5) is a lightly raced four-year-old gelding from the Brett Cavanough stables. Normally likes to race forward – however, they may have to go back from barrier 20 – Ashley Morgan rides this track very well and peeling wide in the straight late in the day may be the place to be when the judge calls a halt to the race.
Tara Jasmine (1) trained on the track by John Shelton and resumes from a 13-week spell. She loves her home track, she loves this distance, and she is super first up. Shelton will have her ready to produce a solid effort first up. Michael Cahill will ride. She will be hard to hold out and the locals will be cheering if she can win!
Selections:
12 – Proverbial
10 – Holy Tycoon
8 – Aheadofhistime
5 – Rising
Rough chances – (1) Tara Jasmine
_______________________________________________________________________
Jockey’s Challenge
This is an open affair – Anthony Allen – Braith Nock – Ashley Morgan and Jaden Lloyd all have some nice rides. I am going for Ashley Morgan to get it done in a photo finish.
Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4)
1,5,6,9 / 1,2,8 / 2,8,10,12 / 3,4,5,8 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4)
5,9 / 2,8 / 10,12 / 3,5 - cost is $16 to $1
Quaddie (races 4 to 7)
3,4,5,8 / 1,4,8,11 / 1,3,4,8 / 5,8,10,12 - cost is $256 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 4 to 7)
3,5 / 1,4,11 / 1,3 / 8,10,12 - cost is $36 to $1
Treble (races 5 to 7)
1,4,8,11 / 1,3,4,8 / 5,8,10,12 - cost is $64 to $1
BIG 6 (races 2 to 7)
2,8 / 10,12 / 3,5 / 1,11 / 1,3 / 10,12 - cost is $64 to $1
More articles
|