THE STRADBROKE HANDICAP: GET READY FOR A QUEENSLAND CELEBRATION!
By Graham Potter | Friday, June 7, 2013
The countdown to the chase for the $1 million pot of gold in the 2013 AAMI Stradbroke Handicap is well and truly on.
Eighteen runners will face the starter for what is always an intense contest. An upset is always an option, particularly because the fact that the ever-present variables of exact underfoot conditions and luck in running cannot be gauged right until the moment of impact, but, that aside, this year there appears to be only a small group of runners who should have a stranglehold on the fight for major honours.
THE MAIN CONTENDERS (BUFFERING, EPAULETTE, SOLZHENITSYN, SIZZLING). Horses are discussed in race-book order.
Let’s face it, twelve-time winner BUFFERING is the horse to beat. Sure he is vulnerable. Any horse that carries top weight in a competitive feature race already has a slight dent in his armour. Throw in the fact that the 1400m trip will test even BUFFERING’S renowned steadfast resolve (BUFFERING is zero from five over the trip) and you can make a clear case for BUFFERING being run down inside the final 100m, but the point is that whoever does run him down, if that indeed is the final scenario, will either win the race or fight out the finish. That is how good BUFFERING is. You have to beat him. He never gives his front running position away lightly and Saturday should be no exception. The chasers will apply pressure halfway up the home straight. Buffering will respond. It might be a close go at the line but, whatever the result, BUFFERING will be a big player on the day.
EPAULETTE beat BUFFERING by 2.10 lengths in the Doomben 10 000, overhauling and then going away from the Rob Heathcote runner down over the final 150m. While the Stradbroke will be an intense affair as always, the breakneck speed that BUFFERING and YOUR SONG set in the 10 000 is unlikely to be repeated this time around. The theory is that BUFFERING will be able to dictate in a manner which better suits his purpose and that will mean that EPAULETTE will have to work that much harder to reel in the leader … and that will only be after he has had to negotiate the minefield which he will face from a car-park barrier draw. The bottom line though is that EPAULETTE (who has won three out of four over the 1400m distance) will be one of those charging home at the death. His result will all depend on how good a position he finds from which to launch his challenge.
Toorak winner SOLZHENITSYN is the type of horse you would like to take into a Group 1 war. He has a strong, intimidating presence which should serve him well in the heat of battle. A solid unit to be sure. A poor draw does complicate his task, but he would have raced off speed anyway. While he does not have the electric acceleration of an EPAULETTE, who can kill his opposition’s chances in a couple of strides, SOLZHENITSYN has enough power to get the same result by crushing his opposition into submission with a long sustained run. Timing will be important to Solzhenitsyn. While EPAULETTE will have the luxury of holding up his run for as long as he can, SOLZHENITSYN will have to move early making Rodd’s judgement of when to go a critical factor. Rodd hasn’t been wrong yet. He has had three rides for three wins on the horse which cements the fact they are a formidable combination.
SIZZLING bounced back to something like his best form last week when taking out the Guineas. Most credit the introduction of blinkers for improving his form this time in but, while they were obviously a positive factor, the chances are they are only part of the story. SIZZLING was third up in the Guineas. In his previous prep he was also beaten twice when resuming before winning the Gold Edition third-up, so it is safe to assume he has been building fitness along the way and that he will be cherry-ripe for this engagement. Add in the fact that the Guineas result once again highlighted SIZZLING’s love affair with Eagle Farm (where he has saluted in five of six starts) and his build-up would seem to be more than satisfactory. For those worried about him backing up from last week, he was also backing up when he landed the Group 1 TJ Smith last season. Like all but BUFFERING of the contenders listed here, SIZZLING has a wide barrier to contend with. That does complicate his task but he is beautifully weighted.
THE DANGERS (STREAMA, YOUR SONG).
STREAMA won the Australian Oaks back in April last year. She was then out for almost four months before returning with a four race campaign which included a Group 2 win in the Tristarc Stakes over the Stradbroke distance (over which she has a seventy-five percent strike rate). Last time out STREAMA earned a nod of approval for a creditable fourth-placed finish in the Doncaster, when crossing the line2.40 lengths behind Sacred Falls. The rider who was on her in the Doncaster sticks with her. G Boss in a big Group 1 race. You’d think that might be worth a second glance.
YOUR SONG will be a sighter if it rains hard during race-day on Saturday and the track becomes rain affected. Beyond that though, just how good is he? Neither of his runs this campaign have answered that question. His Group 1 romp in the BTC Cup was achieved in atrocious conditions. Most pundits were happy to draw a line through the runs of most of his opponents that day while heralded him as something special. Surely the correct thing to do would be to draw a line through that race altogether. The flaw in that ‘something special’ logic was clearly exposed when YOUR SONG went out at a suicidal pace with BUFFERING in the Doomben 10 000 and was firmly put in his place by the more seasoned runner. Happy to give YOUR SONG some benefit of the doubt here, but he still has plenty to prove.
THE BEST OF THE REST (LINTON, SPIRIT OF BOOM, FONTELINA, BETTER THAN READY).
LINTON has current form in his favour having won his last two starts, albeit in Listed and Group 3 company in Adelaide.
SPIRIT OF BOOM ran a steady enough race in the Doomben 10 000. Weighted to get closer.
Beware the late arrival coming under the radar. FONTELINA was the last conformed entry into the final field yet he manages to pick up J Cassidy in the saddle. That’s always worth a couple of lengths.
BETTER THAN READY has won half of his twelve starts and is showing all the potential in the world. He has an eye-catching way of going about his business which has attracted many followers. He carries the right weight, but that advantage is tempered by a bad draw. Might have to do it tough, but has the acceleration to carry him into it.
As mentioned at the outset an upset is always an option. Leaving out runners from the Peter Moody, Clarry Conners, Gerald Ryan and Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes stables (MY QUEST FOR PEACE, DECISION TIME, HOT SNITZEL and HAPPY ZERO respectively) is a decision fraught with danger particularly when that omission includes riders of the calibre of Nolen, Bowman, Dunn and Avdulla. YOSEI is also on the ‘no’ list. So is FAMOUS SEAMUS along with Kelso Wood’s other two runners Belltone and Spirit Song … but that is the way things work when a difficult choice has to be made.
GRAHAM POTTER’S STRADBROKE SELECTIONS:
1 Solzhenitsyn; 2 Buffering; 3 Epaulette; 4 Streama
SUGGESTED BIG RACE TRIFECTA ($120.00 OR A PERCENTAGE THEREOF):
First place: 1 Buffering; 2 Epaulette: 3 Solzhenitsyn; 4 Streama
Second place:1 Buffering; 2 Epaulette; 3 Solzhenitsyn, 4 Streama; 9 Spirit Of Boom; 18 Sizzling
Third place:1 Buffering; 2 Epaulette; 3 Solzhenitsyn; 4 Streama; 8 Your Song; 9 Spirit Of Boom; 15 Fontelina; 18 Sizzling
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