COMPELLING TRUTH - ONE FOR THE BELIEVERS

By Graham Potter | Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Compelling Truth has the form to make you believe he can win the 2025 edition of the Ramornie Handicap at Grafton on Wednesday.

The Mack Griffith trained son of I Am Invincible has won three of his last four starts. All of those wins have come over 1200m … the race distance for the Ramornie … and have been achieved in arguably a more decisive fashion than his relatively narrow margins of victory suggests.

Compelling Truth set up that run of wins by kicking off his latest preparation with two notable placings, finishing second in his first-up outing behind the very useful Wanda Rox (a ten- time winner from twenty-one starts) and then third behind the very smart Steady Ready (the Eagle Farm 1000m track record holder).

Both of those runs were over 1000m against very speedy horses and they set the foundation for Compelling Truth who was perfectly primed when he stepped up to 1200m to begin his run of race wins which arrived in an Open Handicap at Eagle Farm, the $200 000 Wagga Town Plate and the $160 000 Listed Hinkler back at Eagle Farm.

The only miss in that four-race period came in the Listed Ortensia at Scone, Compelling Truth’s second last start, in which he finished beaten out of the placings, It was a disappointing run with no real explanation. All that was noted in the steward’s report was that Compelling Truth, ‘Raced wide and without cover for the majority of the event. A postrace veterinary examination did not reveal any abnormalities.’

The fact that he bounced straight back to win the Hinkler at his very next start suggests a line can be drawn through that Scone result.

An important plus in this successful scenario has been the presence of Bailey Wheeler in the saddle and the formidable working relationship he and Compelling Truth have built up, particularly in recent times, with Wheeler having partnered Compelling Truth in all three of his recent wins.

And you can trace the success of that partnership even further back to a previous win by Compelling Truth at Doomben, again over 1200m, back in August 2024.

That was the first time Wheeler rode Compelling Truth. Add in their three subsequent wins and Wheeler boasts a perfect record on the Griffith trained runner, an unbeaten record of four wins from four starts.

Also in the credit column is the fact that Compelling Truth has an impressive fifty-percent winning strike-rate … twelve wins from twenty-four starts and, incredibly, since he resumed following a twelve-month break from race action back in February 2024, the five-year-old has never won one race in isolation.

First it was a double success in February 2024. The next winning sequence was four-in-a-row from May 2024 to July 2024 … then another double in August and September 2024 … then the double at Eagle Farm and Wagga … the story there being that when he wins after a losing run, he claims a follow-up win in his next start.

He goes in the Ramornie looking for back-to back wins … which, given the stats mentioned above, should come with a warning sign.

Lastly, Compelling Truth is one win from one run at Grafton having taken out the Sir James Kirby (Quality) during last year’s Grafton July Carnival.

A point to possibly dent the enthusiasm for a Compelling Truth strike is the fact that he will be carrying from 1,5kg to 5kg more than all of his opposition, but, weighed against that, he has carried up to 61.5kg to victory before.

Compelling Truth is currently on the second line of betting for the Ramornie behind the Richard Litt trained Barber who won the Listed Takeover Target at Gosford three runs back.

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